|Plot taken (axis adapted for clarity) from the BMJ paper|
This study is fascinating and will certainly be a valuable contribution to the academic literature on the subject, but it generates more questions than it answers.
For example, the birth rate is 21% lower at weekends. Even if elective c sections (which are very low risk and almost always done on weekdays) are removed, it is still 11% lower. Why? Could a reduction in the number of Inductions (IOL) at the weekend be involved? There is increasing evidence that IOL for overdue babies improves a number of outcomes, but this isn't covered int he paper so we don't know.
If consultant cover makes no difference what about the number of midwives, junior doctors, pediatricians etc.? What about their work patterns and moral?
What about dozens of other factors that we just haven't thought of? The simple answer is we don't know.
What we do know, if we actually look at the data not the headlines, is that there is no reason for women to be afraid of going into labour on the weekend. I've heard several health care professionals today express concern that women who start to get contractions, who's waters break or who feel a reduction in their baby's movements could delay going to hospital to avoid the weekend effect and in so doing risk something worse. The prospect of giving birth can be scary enough as it is, women need real evidence not hype. I find myself saying this over and over again, we are grown up adult human beings - why are we so rarely treated like it when there are column inches up for grabs (and perhaps in this case academic impact factors)?
Clearly more research is needed on the questions raised by this paper, it could be the starting point for something really useful, maybe lifesaving. But right now, it and the media response to it, only risk causing yet more fear and confusion.
If you are pregnant and reading this, just take this one thing away: The NHS is flawed and under funded, sometimes it makes mistakes, sometimes it just doesn't do things as well as it should, but if things get difficult in childbirth it has your back. The vast majority of women will take home wonderful, healthy babies, whatever day of the week they decide to turn up on. I, and my babies, wouldn't be here without it.
In case you missed the other links - the original paper including the full version of the diagram above can be found HERE